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 The beginning and end of the European cruise season have always presented some great bargains for value-seeking cruisers – particularly for last-minute departures. But for a variety of reasons, this fall and spring appear to be shaping up as two of the best seasons ever for deeply discounted trans-Atlantic cruises.   

Take the booking I just made aboard the Emerald Princess for a trans-Atlantic cruise that departs Venice on October 3. Just one week before the scheduled departure, Princess Cruises sent me an email promoting the 18-day voyage to Ft. Lauderdale with fares starting at a ridiculously low CDN$999 for an inside cabin. With fuel surcharges, taxes and port charges, the total per person cost for this 18-day cruise starts at just CDN$1,084.37, or an amazing $60 per day.  

At these prices, it hardly makes sense to get on an airplane to cross the pond. After all, where else could you get transportation, a hotel, three meals a day and entertainment for just $60 a day? My airplane ticket alone was $450 one way (including taxes and fees), and a night in Venice would have set me back at least 200 Euros.  

So why are we getting such great deals on trans-Atlantic cruises? 

Traditionally, the reason has been “yield management,” which is the way cruise lines manage the occupancy rate and pricing point of every voyage. The objective is to get the highest level of revenue per voyage, which means selling off inventory close to departure dates when ships are sailing well below capacity. Since trans-Atlantic voyages at the beginning and end of the season are difficult sells, this has always resulted in some very attractive fares.  

But there appear to be more factors at work this year that are producing lower fares than ever.

First, with the higher price of oil, it’s more expensive than ever for ships to sail well below capacity. And since the cost of fuel to sail across the Atlantic is both substantial and fixed, it makes good sense to subsidize that cost with as many paying passengers as possible, even with last-minute fares that are break-even or less.

Second, with airlines cutting back capacity and increasing fares, it’s more difficult than ever to get last-minute flights at reasonable rates. And even if you do, it can mean annoying stop-overs and plane changes rather than a direct flight. So last-minute sell-offs have to be priced at very attractive rates.

Third, with consumer confidence in the economy hitting record lows, people have been cutting back on spending, especially for items they consider optional. And while most people still consider a vacation essential, they are retreating to destinations that are closer to home. In fact, in response to this trend, several cruise lines have begun to discount Mediterranean cruises for the 2009 season, and redirect ships to the North American market.     

And fourth, with more than 34 new ships slated for delivery in the next four years, there will be more capacity than ever competing to get passengers up their gangplanks.  

While these trends will make life more interesting than ever for the world’s major cruise lines, they will continue to find innovative ways to fill their ships. And for the foreseeable future, that means we’ll continue to see great deals at sea, particularly for longer-haul destinations like Europe and South America, and for last-minute departures.  

That’s good news for value-conscious consumers looking for a great vacation deal, and even better news for cruise fans with the flexibility to travel on short notice.  

 

Well, probably not Sarah Palin or Stephane Dion, who seem to have their hands full dealing with issues like credibility and declining popularity in election campaigns on both sides of the border. However, it seems like a good number of you are rocking the boat, and that the old folks are coming out on top.

At least, that’s what a new survey from Tripharbour.ca and Leger Marketing says about adult Canadians. According to the survey, 12% of Canadians admit to having had sex at sea. This means that nearly 3 million residents of the true, north, strong and free are now proud members of the “Naughtycal Mile Club,” an elite organization reserved for those who can still hoist the mainsail in 10-foot seas.

Given that Canadians live most of the year in a frozen state of suspended animation, it’s not surprising that a growing number are searching for romantic places like cruise ships to deal with their frigid relationships. In fact, some 28% of them claim they have been on a cruise. However, what I want to know is if only 12% of cruise-going Canadians are having sex at sea, what are the other 16% doing – watching CNN?

In any event, it seems that younger Canadians are pulling down the national “sex at sea” average. According to the survey, 58% of cruise-going Canadians aged 45 and older are making waves at sea, while only 33% of younger Canadian cruisers are rocking the boat. It could be that the sea air, salt water and endless sunsets have a stronger effect on older folks, but I suspect it has more to do with the Viagra. After all, as the TV commercial advises, if your erection lasts more than 48 hours, call your doctor or just pole vault up the gangplank onto a cruise ship.

Now, I always thought French-speakers were more romantic than Anglophones. However, according to the survey, only 22% of Quebecers have had sex at sea. In contrast, some 57% of couples from Ontario and 55% from British Columbia have steamed up the portholes. So while English Canada may be coming out on top in this challenge, I hope my friends in Quebec will not take these results lying down…ehh… on the other hand, maybe they should.

But there is hope for the future of l’amour sur la mer. More than a quarter of Quebecers said they would be more likely to have sex aboard a cruise ship than at a land-based resort. So if we can get more of them off the beaches in Miami and onto a cruise ship, we stand a good chance of making big waves and increasing our membership in the Naughtycal Mile Club.

While younger Canadians are pulling down the national sex at sea average, it’s not for a lack of imagination. When asked what they thought was the most adventurous place on a cruise ship for a tryst, Canadians aged 35 and younger were 67% more likely than older cruisers to choose somewhere other than their cabin such as a life boat, the pool/hot tub, and on the bridge. Thankfully, no one selected the engine room.

In addition, nearly two-thirds of men surveyed fantasized about having sex outside the cabin – I suspect mainly in the sports bar while watching NFL football!

In all seriousness, these are the findings of a Leger Marketing poll of 1,030 Canadians conducted on behalf of Tripharbour.ca from September 5 to 8 of 2008. We’ll be putting the survey findings and questions on our website in the near future, and asking people from across North America to join in with their own responses. In the meantime, don’t forget to do your part to increase our national sex at sea average and give the people at Statistics Canada something to get excited about.

In order to determine the top 10 reasons why people take cruises, I recently commissioned a study by the world-famous research institute, Dave’s Organization for Public International Enquiry (DOPIE).

The brain trust at DOPIE put together a brilliant set of questions which they used to survey more than 2,000 thought-leaders in the U.S., Canada, Venezuela, and North Korea. As usual, the eternal Chairman Kim Jong-Il responded on behalf of all North Koreans. In Venezuela, wannabe President for life Hugo Chavez refused to tell the truth for fear of setting a dangerous precedent. And in Canada, federal Liberal leader Stephane Dion was too busy removing Conservative Puffin poop from his blazer to participate. Otherwise, the findings represent the true opinions of some of the world’s greatest thought leaders.

So for the first time ever, I am proud to present DOPIE’s list of the top 10 reasons why people take cruises:

10 - The swaying motion of the ship increases libido.

9 - What happens at sea, stays at sea.

8 - Great entertainment like the knife-throwing act in rough seas.

7 - Passengers find the vacuum toilets on cruise ships very erotic.

6 - If you lose all your money in the casino, it’s just a short walk to the lifeboats.

5 - People love cute nautical terms like muster, bilge pump and spouse-overboard!

4 - Captain’s party provides one more chance to wear your favorite bridesmaid’s dress.

3 - They never show “Titanic” on movie night.

2 - Never any arguments about who will be the designated driver.

1 - You don’t have to leave the dining room to go whale watching.

That’s it for this year’s DOPIE survey on why people take cruises. Please feel free to add your own favorite reasons for cruising in the comments section – if they’re better than mine, we may offer you a job as the new CEO of DOPIE.

(These are findings of a DOPIE Poll conducted on behalf of Commodore Dave from 01/09 to 10/09 of 2008. A random selection was avoided by inviting Dave’s friends to a party, giving them significant amounts of liquor, and asking them to fill in a survey once they were drunk. The margin of error for a sample this size is +/- 147 percentage points 19 times out of 1 million. For further information about the findings, please contact Elvis.)

 As oil prices surged to nearly $150 a barrel earlier this year, a lot of people started to ask what the impact would be on the travel industry. And in particular, what it would mean for the cruising segment, where bunker oil represents the single largest expense of any voyage.

The immediate response from both the airline and cruise industry was to bring in fuel supplement charges, which recovered only part of the added cost. But while airlines were free to raise additional revenue by increasing fares and adding extra charges for items like luggage, these were not viable options for cruise ships.

Oil prices are now back down to less than $105 per barrel (and forecast to tumble further), but people may still be wondering how the cruise industry will cope with oil prices if they remain above the $80 level.

Well, for starters – and this is good news for everyone who loves to cruise – it likely won’t come from an increase in basic cruise fares. With 34 new ships being launched in the next 4 years, and a net increase in lower berths of 11,686 in 2008 and 21,574 in 2009, there are simply too many cabins going begging to justify higher per diem rates.

In addition, with airlines cutting back on flights and increasing fares, we are beginning to see some booking weakness in long haul cruise destinations like South America and Europe. So my guess is that we will continue to see very attractive cruise rates for several years to come, particularly in markets where demand is soft.

I suspect we’ll also see cruise lines altering various itineraries to shorten routes and reduce fuel consumption. In fact, Royal Caribbean International (RCI) recently announced changes to the New England / Canada itinerary for the 3,000-passenger Explorer of the Seas. Rather than sail from New Jersey to Quebec City, next year the ship will add ports of call in New England and only sail as far north as Halifax.

According to a recent story by the Associated Press, some cruise lines are also looking at spending less time in certain ports so that ships can travel more slowly between destinations, thus saving on fuel. And the savings can be substantial. For example, a new Solstice-class ship in the Celebrity fleet will consume half as much fuel at 15 knots than it will at 23 knots — a savings of nearly $100,000 per week on fuel costs.

The AP story also noted that most cruise lines are now fitting ships with reflective window coatings to keep rooms cooler, and painting hulls with drag-resistance paint (the Disney Wonder was the first ship to use this technology).

In addition to cutting costs, cruise lines are also looking at ways to increase revenues from optional onboard activities. For example, by increasing margins from “pay-as-you-play” items like alternative restaurants, health spa treatments, liquor sales, shore excursions, retail shops, etc. And by adding new options such as cabana rentals and special activities, as well as creating new classes of premium cabins that fetch higher rates.

So while higher oil prices have and will continue to impact the cruising industry, the major cruise lines have figured out some smart ways to mitigate the effects on passengers while maintaining their profitability.

However, there remains one potential issue that is beyond the control of the cruise industry – competitively priced and reliable airlift. If the major airlines don’t get their acts together, it will become increasingly difficult for cruise lines to sell-off vacant cabins close to sailing dates for overseas voyages, because reasonably priced airplane seats will be in short supply that close to departure. If that happens, cruise ship occupancy rates could start to tumble.

In that scenario, you can bet that cruise lines will quickly shift capacity away from long-haul destinations, and into ports that are easier to get to by both air and car. In other words, the waters surrounding Alaska, New England, the Panama Canal and the Caribbean could get a lot more crowded in future — and cruise fares for these destinations more competitive than ever.

When I took my first voyage back in 1980, just about everything I wanted on board the ship was included in the overall cruise fare. The only extra fees I remember paying were for tips, shore excursions and alcohol, all of which were optional and reasonably priced.

Since then, however, cruise lines have become a lot more creative in finding ways to separate passengers from their money. For example, ships now offer specialty coffees starting at $1.50 per cup. They have reservation-only alternative restaurants that charge $15-20 per person (the main dining room and lido buffet are free). There are spa treatments that can cost several hundred dollars. And the latest cash grab involves private poolside cabanas that go for as much as $50 to $75 per day.

In addition, the mark-ups on items like shore excursions are beginning to get excessive. For example, a full-day excursion from the port of Civitavecchia to Rome now costs around $250 per person. In contrast, a return train ticket between the same cities runs about $15.

The bottom line is that the cost of these “extras” can easily exceed the cost of the cruise fare if passengers are not careful.

In fairness to the cruise lines, the basic cost of a cruise ticket has actually gone down over the past 20 years when adjusted for inflation, and still provides exceptional value. In fact, some cruise fares can actually run as little as $50 per person, per day (without fees and taxes) on some repositioning cruises. So if the margins aren’t as fat as they used to be on the cruise fare, it only makes sense that cruise lines are trying to make up for it by finding new sources of on-board revenue.

The good news is that all of these extra charges are optional, and most can be greatly reduced with some smart advance planning. For example, here are a few tips:

• Limit your dinners at the alternative restaurant to a maximum of one per week. And look for special prices – sometimes a ship will offer lower prices at these alternative restaurants on the first night, or on an evening with a late port call.
• If you have a spa treatment, don’t buy any of the expensive lotions and creams they will try to sell you – it can double the cost of your treatment.
• Don’t reserve private pool chairs or cabanas, and if you must, just do so on sea days when the crowds by the pool will warrant it.
• If your cruise line’s policy allows it, buy some alcohol to consume in your room. Also, if your cruise line has a reasonable corkage fee, consider buying some wine on shore to bring aboard for dinner – it may be cheaper than buying from the wine list.
• If you drink a lot of soda pop, purchase a “drink all you want” card for a flat fee if your cruise line offers one. They are a good deal. Also, refill your own water bottles at the bar rather than purchasing new ones each day.
• Plan to do some shore excursions on your own, especially when it’s an easy port to get around in, or if the organized excursions are too pricey. 
• Or, sail on one of the luxury lines where the cost of alcohol, alternative restaurants and tips are included in the basic cruise fare.

So while cruise lines are bound to keep adding new sources of on-board revenue to off-set thinner margins on the basic cruise fare, there are lots of ways to mitigate their effect. And for those who want to use all the additional perks, I think it’s great they have the option to pay for them without the rest of us having to subsidize the cost.

Postscript: Some of you may have been wondering why there was such as long gap between the last two blog entries. We were on vacation for the last week, driving our daughter to Dalhousie University in Halifax where she is starting school this week. But I’m back now, and looking forward to posting my blogs and hearing from you again on a regular basis.